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Dat is de vraag, want goud heeft verder niet echt veel gebruikswaarde. Dit in tegenstelling tot de metalen waar het hierboven over gaat. Alleen zolang mensen veel waarde hechten aan goud, blijft de prijs hoog.Blackadder schreef:Wat goud betreft is er geen echte bubble, het spul is gewoon gruwelijk schaars en gaat nooit meer structureel in prijs dalen.
De goudprijs is enorm gestegen sinds begin dit jaar en dat komt omdat in economische slechte tijden men graag in het spul investeert omdat het waardevast is en inflatiebestendig; dit kun je niet bepaald zeggen van aandelen. Maar waarschijnlijk zal de prijs niet meer enorm stijgen en dat betekent dat wanneer je nu gaat kopen dat je wel een risico neemt want de prijs kan wel degelijk omlaag. Als je nu juist wilt verkopen dan kun je goede zaken doen.Wat goud betreft is er geen echte bubble, het spul is gewoon gruwelijk schaars en gaat nooit meer structureel in prijs dalen.
Dit is een wat langer stuk. Daarom maar een paar stukjes die me opvielen.China Is Said to Resume Shipping Rare Earth Minerals
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/29/busin ... ?ref=world
China produces about 95 percent of the global supply of the minerals. That is largely because rare earth mining and processing can be so environmentally risky, creating toxic and even radioactive wastes, that other countries have tended to avoid or abandon production. Only recently have other nations begun scrambling to develop or expand their own mining capabilities.
In recent weeks, senior Chinese commerce ministry officials have insisted that they had not issued any regulations halting shipments. They have suggested at various times — implausibly, in the view of industry executives — that the halt resulted from a spontaneous and simultaneous decision by the country’s 32 authorized rare earth exporters not to make shipments, whether because of a deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations or a greater thoroughness on the part of customs inspectors.
The Chinese government assigns its quotas to the authorized exporters, who often trade those rights like commodities. As recently as 2008, the quota rights themselves had no market value. But lately, with rising demand, the value of the remaining quotas has soared to the point that the right to export a single ton of rare earths from China now sells for about $40,000, including special Chinese taxes.
That is a sizable, additional cost for buyers of neodymium, a rare earth used to make lightweight, powerful magnets essential to technologies including giant wind turbines, gasoline-electric cars and Apple iPhones.
Because the United States and Europe mainly buy highly processed rare earth powders from China, the customs policy of blocking shipments of raw rare earths had a limited, mostly symbolic effect. Japan, in contrast, is the biggest importer of raw rare earths and tends to process them into industrial materials. So Japan is more dependent on the materials affected by China’s tightening quotas.
It was on Oct. 18 that the Chinese government broadened its halt in raw rare earths to include the United States and Europe. That step enabled customs officials to take the position that they were checking all rare earth shipments closely and were not singling out Japan.
The move also occurred only hours after Zhang Guobao, the country’s top energy official, summoned foreign reporters in Beijing. There, he delivered a blistering denunciation of the Obama administration’s decision the previous Friday to begin investigating whether China’s clean energy policies violated the World Trade Organization’s free trade rules. But the exact interaction between American policy decisions and Chinese customs enforcement actions is unclear.
For China, the embargo on rare earth shipments has provided at least some geopolitical leverage. The halt was one of a series of measures that China took after Japan detained the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler that collided with two Japanese patrol boats; Japan later released the trawler’s captain.
